This sure has been an injury filled and eventful beginning to our 2012 fantasy baseball season. There are plenty of star players that are regularly missing from our lineups. Ryan Howard, Chris Carpenter, Brian Roberts, Drew Storen, Michael Morse and Carl Crawford haven’t even contributed one day yet and still haven’t shown any significant signs of playing soon. Fantasy Stalwarts Jacoby Ellsbury, Lance Berkman, Evan Longoria, Chris Young, Pablo Sandoval, Brett Gardner, Kevin Youkilis, Cliff Lee, Daniel Hudson, Huston Street, and Sergio Santos are more players that will drastically improve your lineups when they come off the DL. Some rather soon, all of these players were drafted with big intentions. If you are anything like me, you might be looking at who you can add to bridge the gap. Let’s take a look at what is available week 6 of your 2012 fantasy baseball season.
Alejandro De Aza OF White Sox owned in 81%: I cannot get enough of De Aza. He is the highest ranked under the radar player on my preseason rankings list. I have gone out on a limb and projected him as the #11 overall outfielder before the season started. I drafted him in every league. De Aza is also our sleeper of the year here at expertfantasyrankings.com. He is hitting leadoff and playing everyday in Chicago. They have plenty of good sticks behind him and he should be a lock for around 100 runs scored, he can hit .295, he can steal 35+ bags, he can hit 15+ hr for you, and still possibly drive in 75 runs at the leadoff spot.. What else could you possibly want out of a guy that you could have drafted in the last rd of your draft? If you don’t make space for him, prepare to lose to the team that does. Watch him play and you will regret not drafting him.
Nolan Riemold OF Orioles owned in 57%: My 27th ranked overall OF in our season rankings this year, despite his neck injury Riemold is not letting me down. Another player I drafted in almost every league. Riemold is one of the most dropped players this week. Get him now because we have been saying all along that he was going to break out this season. Nolan is a great breakout candidate and Showalter seems to really know what to do with him. He looks good at the leadoff spot and will look even better in the 3 hole should he continue his hitting and Roberts comes back. Nolan has 20-20 potential and actually seems to have the power for 30 hr if he gets 600 total plate appearances. Don’t let him be available in your league for another second, take a break and go get him.
Angel Pagan OF Giants owned in 70%: Pagan is our 19th overall OF in our rankings for 2012. He is batting leadoff and has the potential for a .280 line with 40+ SB, and 85 runs scored this season. The gaps at San Francisco line up well with his swing and he is due for a nice amount of triples this season. Look for a nice increase extra base hits with a season of full time ab ahead of him. Pagan should be owned and started in 100% of the leagues. So check extra carefully for him or maybe even go get him in a trade based on my recommendation.
Tony Campana OF Cubs owned in 23%: So I picked up Campana to be a backup and probably be the first guy I drop. Not so fast, or should I say, wow he is fast… Campana said in a recent interview that if he had a full season in the majors he could easily swipe 100 bags. If you need SB and Tony is available, its a no brainer. Once you add him you won’t be able to drop him. Tony is the fastest player in MLB. Even when he doesn’t start he gets a look for a sb and a run or an AB as a pinch hitter.
Carlos Quentin OF Padres owed in 57%: Carlos is an OPS machine. He will strike out a bit more than you might like when he is cold but when he sees the ball well he will either walk or hit an extra base hit. Quentin is our 30th ranked OF this season and he should be back from his injury this week. Expect him to nail 20+ HR and hit in the heart of the Padre lineup.
Mark Reynolds 3B/1B Orioles owned in 74%: Mark is one of the guys that seem to be getting dropped in most of my leagues. I don’t draft him, but I will add him. He is hot and cold, boom or bust, whatever you want to call it Mark strikes out more times a year than my girlfriend changes her outfits, shaves her legs, or wears makeup. However nobody but Pujols has hit as many HR as Reynolds lately. This year and the last 5. Just don’t drop your high draft picks this early fellas.
Ike Davis 1B Mets owned in 74%: Although I’m worried about this whole Valley Fever thing that he may or may not have, I won’t be dropping or trading Davis anytime soon. Oh Ike, you have a lot of work to do to climb your way out to be the #13 1B like I thought you were. My guess is that he just needs to get his timing back. But when I watch Davis bat, he looks all out of whack. Nothing is still in his approach, he moves his hands 2 feet every pitch. I still believe that Davis will bat at least .270 and hit 25+ hr this season. There I said it. Another case of just don’t drop your high picks this early fellas..
Paul Goldschmidt 1B Diamondbacks owned in 60%: Goldy is hitting well for the fist time this year, besides the first day of the year when he took Lincecum deep. Paul can easily rake in 30 HR this season so make sure your league isn’t one of the 40% that he is a free agent in. Don’t worry too much about Lyle Overbay, Gibson does not want to play him. He also doesn’t want to lose more, which is why Overbay played while Goldy struggled. While Paul maintains his positive momentum expect less and less Lyle. Goldy is my 24th ranked 1B this season and I think that is as conservative as I was willing to go.
Eric Bedard SP Pirates owned in 64%: Bedard’s injury history and his era of 5.03 this spring has taken him out of the talk of a must have fantasy pitcher. In a shallow league, I have the philosophy to pitch them while they are healthy and buy another healthy arm when you need it. Bedard was considered an ace, until he became considered injury prone. I am not afraid of injury prone players if they put up outstanding numbers while healthy. Bedard fits the category, he also should see an increase in K now that he gets to face some pitchers on a regular basis. He can have an era under 3.65, strike out over a batter an inning, and if he stays healthy he is good for around 200 innings. Pick up the Pirates ace and reap the rewards as long as he is healthy. He is among the NL league leaders in strikeouts so far this season.
Chipper Jones 3B Braves owned in 66%: The future hall of famer has no reason to be unowned in your league. If you have a daily league, Jones can be a must start 3B every day that he plays. I use RotoInfo Daily Lineups to check on the lineups every day. I only have Jones in daily lineup leagues but he still has value in Roto leagues that use weekly lineups. Chipper plays 2-3 days and takes a day off. His bat is hot as ever right now and as I previously mentioned there is no reason to think that Chipper Jones isn’t worth a spot on your roster. He will bat .300, hit 20 HR, and score and drive in around 75 runs. Much better than some players that are owned in a higher percentage of leagues.
Josh Tomlin SP Indians owned in 12%: Tomlin is a favorite sleeper of mine. Two things that I love about him are he throws almost nothing but strikes and he is a classic throwback baseball player. Watching him pitch reminds you of the “junk” ball thrower that could barely hit 6o and you still couldn’t hit. Big League style chew in mouth, Tomlin will challenge every hitter he faces. Start him against weak hitting teams and you can reap the benefits. He goes deep into games, doesn’t walk anyone, and will get you enough K to start during 2 start weeks. Tomlin may not be real flashy but he is our 73rd ranked pitcher and I am pretty sure you can count on him to keep your whip respectable. I would rather have Tomlin than guys like Phil Hughes, Bruce Chen, Phillip Humber, and Francisco Liriano.
Ryan Vogelsong SP Giants owned in 60%: Vogelsong made the All-Star team in 2011. Just because he is missing a week and a half, he is not owned in 37% of the leagues. That is not right. Vogelsong has cemented his spot in the rotation with the Giants trading Jonathan Sanchez to KC. Even if he doesn’t repeat his 2011 numbers he is still worth having on your team, so if he is available don’t hesitate to grab him up today. He clearly learned how to pitch in Japan and I don’t expect to big of a drop off. He is set to make his first start this weekend. His ownership will sky rocket with a good performance or two, take him before it happens.
Wei-Yin Chen SP Orioles owned in 35%: Chen is still a big question mark, I am picking Chen up in every league after he showed very good composure against the New York Yankees in his MLB debut. He gave up a leadoff home run to Jeter for his welcome to the MLB moment. Chen then settled in nicely and pitched 5 2/3 strong innings in which he struck out 6 batters and gave up 2 earned runs. The manager will be somewhat careful about his innings but look for Chen to throw over 180 innings this season. I fully expect an ERA under 4 and his K to BB ratio to be very good as well, probably around 5 to 1. You shouldn’t miss out on what he could be, his ceiling is very high. He picked up a win in his second start so the secret will be out soon.
David DeJesus OF Cubs owned in 18%: Not that I’m a big fan of DeJesus but the guy is the leadoff batter in Chicago and it seems like that is going to stay that way. He is only worth mentioning because he is worth a spot in a daily head to head league. The guy gets a lot of ab, so anyone in a daily lineup league can use a leadoff hitter on the bench.
Jerome Williams SP Angels owned in 21%: I drafted Jerome in our league and so far he has been better than I could have hoped. I have been watching him pitch and he reminds me a little bit of Roy Halladay without the arm angles. Jerome has an easily repeatable delivery and a great 2 seam and 4 seam fastball. He sinks his pitches and induces a ton of ground ball outs. He can put just enough movement on his pitches to get them up in the zone for the strikeout. Williams can probably only strike out 6-7 batters max in a game for you, but he is a threat to go 8 innings every time he takes the mound. I roll him out there with confidence, he is what I wish Charlie Morton could be.
Nyjer Morgan OF Brewers owned in 11%: Nyjer is my 54th ranked OF for 2012. He has been splitting time with Gomez who was swinging a hot bat. Now that Gomez is on the 15 day DL, Morgan is a legit add for steals, and if he can get back on track, he is not going to kill you in any particular category. He is a nice add in any format.
Drew Pomeranz SP Rockies owned in 33%: Here is a guy that you are lucking out on because he started off the year pretty poorly. Pomeranz is a fantastic talent and one AAA player told me personally that he is one of the toughest pitchers he has ever faced. Drew will rebound and everyone will remember about him being an uber talent. He is a top 30 prospect in most publications and is breaking camp in the starting rotation. Last season was a huge success. The Rockies are counting on him for 160-170 innings this year so you can expect to keep him well past the all star break. He should just get better and better so stick with him, or go get him.
Brian Roberts 2B Orioles owned in 15%: As recently as preseason 2010, Brian Roberts was once a lock as a top 4 2B. He still could provide fantastic production if he ever gets over this concussion problem. They are easing him back into the swing of things and he is feeling more normal every week. As of now he is taking batting practice with the team, doing fielding drills, running the bases, and mentoring the team on the art of stealing bases. He is targeting a late May return and if that happens you better make sure you stash him. He bats leadoff and he is very fast. He is a very good base stealer. If he makes it back, you should play him. If you can, stash him. Roberts says that he feels closer than ever to a return.
Lorenzo Cain CF Royals owned in 40%: Cain is a rising star in Kansas City and is very much a 5 tool player as a rookie. He is a rock solid fielder with excellent range in CF. He is in no danger of losing playing time anytime soon. If you don’t know what to expect from the guy, I expected him to hit around .290, score 80 runs, drive in 70 rbi, steal around 20 bases, and hit around 20 home runs.. I know it is a slim chance that he is available, but if he is still out there grab him up and start him as soon as he is recovered from injury. Cain was off to a slow start, but don’t let that stop you from grabbing him. Cain will be out another 4 weeks but he is a guy that you can grab early so that you don’t miss out on him.
Yonder Alonso 1B/OF Padres owned in 44%: Alonso could be the long term replacement to Gonzo. The organization is so high on him that they traded super prospect Anthony Rizzo in order to clear the path for Yonder. Although San Diego is a huge pitchers park, Alonso can hit for a very high average in PETCO. Look for Alonso to solidify himself as a must start fantasy player very soon. It is a shame that he is still available in 56% of leagues. I project him out to hit 285, have 20 hr, drive in 90 runs, score 80 runs, and be a mainstay at 1b and hit cleanup for the Padres by the end of the year. Don’t be afraid to start him in your OF for now. Alonso is not going to provide you with huge power numbers but he should be a lock for a high batting average. Off to a slow start, grab him while you can. Alonzo is starting to settle in now, he won’t be available very long.
Marco Scutaro 2B/SS Rockies owned in 53%: Scutaro is way too solid to be unowned in any league. He is the leadoff hitter in Colorado people. In his last four years he has hit between .275 and .299. Marco is realistically a 10/10 guy that will have a OBP of .340 or more this year. He will get back to his days of scoring 90+ runs this season and should be starting at MI for you, or your top backup 2B/SS. Feel free to plug him in at U if you are having injury problems, he won’t hurt you in any category. His ownership will raise and hopefully it is because you read this.
Ryan Doumit C Twins owned in 34%: Ryan is our 19th ranked C. He is at least worth a bench spot. The thing about him is that as long as Morneau is injured, the coach seems to make sure that Doumit’s bat is in the lineup. He plays OF, DH, and Catcher. If you are hurting at catcher, might as well ad Doumit. He always has been a pretty good batter, injuries have been keeping him out of the top 12 catchers year in and year out. Right now Doumit is as healthy as he has ever been.
A.J. Ellis C Dodgers owned in 18%: Here is the deal with Ellis. He is a lifetime AAA player and doesn’t really hit for any power at all. But, he has an amazing eye. Mattingly bats him in front of the pitcher because he knows that A.J. will take the walk every time he gets the chance. He has a great approach every at bat. He might not bring much pop but he will hit for a high enough average that if your league rewards on base percentage in any way Ellis is a great #2 catcher. Ellis is my preseason #14 ranked catcher. That was a risky call by me, so far so good.
Ryan Hanigan C Reds owned in 3%: Hanigan can bat .300 for you and walk more than he strikes out. If this can help you in your format don’t be ashamed to grab him up and play him. Much like A.J. Ellis, Hanigan won’t provide much in the extra base hit categories but if you need on base percentage Hanigan can be your man. In our league we lose points for strikeouts and also start two catchers. Hanigan has shown enough to me to rank him as the 15th catcher coming into 2012.
Todd Helton 1B Rockies owned in 55%: If Helton played everyday he could be a top 15 1b. But he has a bad back that is feeling better than it has in years, and the coach wants to keep it that way. I just expect him to produce every day he is in there. He will play more than Chipper Jones will this season. If you have daily lineups, you need to target those type of players to round out your roster. Its all about what you get out of each day. Trust in Todd.
Travis Ishikawa 1b Brewers owned in 2%: I’m definately in some leagues where there are so many teams and so many players that just grabbing an everyday player is all you can hope for. Travis will be taking over at 1B for the injured Mat Gamel. He is a old school doubles hitter that makes the pitchers work. Nothing to go dropping an underachieving star over, but def worth a look in your NL only or 16 team league.
Dillon Gee SP Mets owned in 19%: Gee is a good pitcher. He is a lock to stick in the rotation this season. He said he worked harder than ever this winter to build endurance. Last season Gee started his year 8-1 with an ERA of 3.22. He was a huge waiver wire addition and I’m surprised that he is this under-owned. I always love to hear that a player has picked up yoga as part of his training. Gee looks more fit and projects out to be a top 80 pitcher this year. Ask yourself this: How many teams are in your league? How many pitchers do you start? He is under-owned, add him now.
Alex Pressley OF Pirates owned in 26%: Alex is the leadoff hitter in Pittsburgh. In 2010 something clicked for Pressley and now he is a pleasant surprise. He has a great approach at the plate and is able to get his barrel on just about anything close. In just over half a season worth of ab, he hit .333 with 8 hr and 22 sb in AAA. In a mid-season call up to the Pirates, he played great until an injury ruined his progress. He will hit close to .300 this year, score close to 100 runs, steal more than 30 bases, and he should be starting for you right now. He is available in 74% of fantasy baseball leagues today and I start him with confidence. A real Roto league gem.
Brett Myers RP Astros 64% and Jonathan Broxton RP Royals owned in 59%: A closer is a closer. Both were once very good options, and both are their teams first option when it comes to a save. If you need saves, these are likely one of your top two options. Grab them up, they can certainly provide good era, whip, and k rates as well as 35+ saves.
Santiago Casilla RP Giants owned in 68%: Casilla instantly becomes the closer for the Giants as long as he can hold the position. I have a feeling that he will have a long leash as well. Casilla had 8 saves last year and really is the only option that they have on the roster. Sergio Romo is best suited for the role he has. Casilla is good and you should have no fear of putting him in your linup and expecting similar numbers to Brian Wilson. He has a lot of value right now in any league considering the opportunities he should get.
Kyle Drabek SP Blue Jays owned in 61%: Kyle is off to a hot start in Toronto and as long as he pitches well, he can count on keeping a spot in the rotation. Drabek has worked on his attitude this offseason, and it has paid off early. He has always had good life on his fastball, but now that he has his head on right you should look for him to grow into a 160 inning starter this year. He could be a nice plug in for your head to head league. Be ready to replace him late season.
Danny Duffy SP Royals owned in 36%: Danny Duffy has a really high ceiling. Last season I was a bit bullish on Duffy and he didn’t live up to the hype for me. I eventually cut bait and he pitched a little better and although his stats didn’t really show it he seemed to finally “get it”. This was a important start to the season for Duffy and he has passed all the tests so far. The young lefty consistently throws his fastball between 93-96 mph and brings a fantastic curve as well. More importantly Duffy is now worth adding to your fantasy team.
Jake Arrieta SP Orioles owned in 64%: Arrieta is the #1 starter in Baltimore. What does that mean? Not much. The highly touted prospect does have a really good arm, and I would feel very comfortable running him out there in any league that I lack superstar pitchers. Jake appears fully recovered from an elbow injury and has gone into the 7th inning in each of his 3 starts. He will contribute in all the categories but wins. He may even win enough to be considered a pretty reliable starter in both head to head and your rotisserie league. He has been a big improvement over Guthrie as the teams horse.
Chris Ianetta C Angels owned in 33%: Ianetta is our 12th ranked catcher this season and that makes him a must start in a twelve team league. I am not sure why he is so under-owned. In a league where on base percentage is a category, you get to add extra value to him. He has a really patient approach at the plate which leads to a high walk rate. He looks streaky at the plate, but this season if he hits over .250 expect him to also hit over 20 HR. That is nice production from a catcher. Especially when he has an on base percentage usually over 100 points higher than his batting average.
Jonathan Sanchez Royals owned in 30%: Jonathan can strike out more than 8 batters per 9 for you but he can get a little wild with the walks sometimes. Nonetheless he is hard to hit and his whip is respectable enough to trust him in any format. I’m not saying he is a top 40 pitcher but we did rank him as our 60th ranked starting pitcher for 2012. Sanchez could win 14 games in KC this season. Although he is off to a slow start, look for Sanchez to bounce back and have a decent season. Sanchez has struck out over 200 batters before so don’t wait for him to throw another no hitter before you try to pick him up. I recommend that you use him only when hot or pitching in a pitchers park.
Ted Lilly SP Dodgers owned in 79%: I’m starting to feel like Lilly is Old Reliable. Now that he is healthy and back in the rotation, Lilly is a must own pitcher. Kemp can score a few runs a game lately so Lilly is actually a nice start in any league. Lilly can win over 12 games, have an ERA under 4, and have a great K to BB ratio leading to a really low Whip (1.15). Pick him up and start him every week. No reason to expect a drop off. He said he feels better than he has in years.
Dayan Viciedo OF White Sox ownded in 27%: Last year at this time Tank was on everyone’s preseason radar. He played very well in a late 2010 call up and most everyone felt that he deserved a shot in Chicago’s lineup. Dunn, Rios, and Pierre struggled so badly that the manager was constantly deflecting questions surrounding the arrival of Viciedo. His time did come and he pretty much disappointed. He hit .255 with a .314 slugging percentage. That was enough for him to go largely undrafted in 2012 despite an everyday role in the OF. I’m not sure if we can expect his 2010 stats (.308 BA, .519 SLG) to translate into a full season of ab, but it may be safe to hedge a bet that he will hit over .285, hit over 20 hr, drive in more than 80 rbi, and slug much better than .314. I suggest grabbing him, waiting for him to get hot, and starting him with confidence. Viciedo will be the regular LF in Chicago this season.
Jeff Nieman SP Rays owned in 51%: Nieman is rock solid as the Rays 5th starter. He is the under the radar Doug Fister. Nieman is 6-9 and he has learned to keep the ball low. Look for an improvement in his HRA numbers and another 12-15 win season will be a lock. Nieman can be a great 2 start option all season for you and if he is available, don’t hesitate. Nieman is a beast on the road. Look for his road games and get him in the lineup for every one of them.
Mike Leake SP Reds owned in 23%: Leake is a up and coming star. He isn’t hyped nearly as much as he should be. This young man skipped the minors. How many pitchers do that? Not many have had his solid results. I assume as he progresses another step in 2012 and his stats could end up looking something like this. 15 wins, 150 K and 60 bb, an era around 3.40 and a whip around 1.15. That is enough to consider him a top 60 starting pitcher in any league. He is off to a slow start, and did the same thing last year. Don’t let him be available in your league.
Juan Nicasio SP Rockies owned in 26%: Nicasio was a dynamite signing for Colorado. The former Dominican standout did not disappoint in his first pro season. What happened to him certainly was surprising though. He suffered a broken neck in August and everybody wrote him off as fantasy history. Guess again, Nicasio is fully recovered and is more confident than ever this season. He is a great strikeout pitcher and will eventually settle in as a #2 or #3 starter for Colorado. My guess is that he can eat up more innings than you might think. The best part about Juan is that he doesn’t walk anyone. He will have a K to BB ratio close to 5 to 1. That is very very impressive and I suggest you grab him up because he might have some beautiful stats by May.
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Daniel Neilly
danielneilly@gmail.com
